The Cost of the Skeptic
It is 2:30 AM ET I am looking at the after-market trading charts of Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX). Both are experiencing the opposite effects from an earnings report. Tesla is down -8.8% from the day open and Netflix is up 9.81%.
Although I read the news leading up to the earnings report one thing was ringing in the back of my head, "Don't trust the News.” Article after article I saw Tesla reported low vehicle delivery along with multiple factory complications and all analysts pointed to a low Q3 report resulting in a dip in stock price. The same story can be said for Netflix. Although the conviction was not as strong as Tesla’s, analysts were bullish for Netflix due to ‘hype’ around new content and stricter password-sharing features. Despite all this, I never showed action. I was convinced the news was wrong and either no big change would result or the articles would be wrong about projections.
This is yet another learning experience in my journey. Although news should not be taken at face value, there is still value to news. Especially today, the majority of Americans have lost a level of trust with most news outlets. Through politics and social media, it is hard to decipher truth from fiction. If you look at the Israel- Hamas War now 12 days in, social media and news is a blender of fake news and a positive feedback loop to always keep the viewer entertained. For instance after the October 7th attack news of up to 40 babies beheaded and killed spread throughout the world as a battle cry for help. Then a week later people are saying this is not true and some major news stations have redacted their claims and yes some still say it is true. IT IS A MESS. The past 12 years has seen a decline in Journalism. Journalists run stories fast and for clicks disregarding accuracy. Despite all this the viewer must still be able to sift through to find the truth. Which is what separates winners from quitters.
This has had a direct impact on me reading about the markets. Far too many times I disregard people who claim they know what a stock or how the US economy will look in a month. Yet at the same time far too many people are afraid to be wrong. Analyst write articles with no end conclusion they play both sides to a story leaving the viewer with no solution. Maybe this is to my fault, I am looking for an answer when there is not one.
To continue with my skeptic view I believe everyone has a leg in everything. If I had the opportunity to write a article that is gonna be posted on The Wall Street Journal for a large audience I would bet behind what I was saying. An example is r/wallstreetbets on reddit, the top 3 sources of news found on the internet of course. I once bought stocks in a company and immediately when to the forum to glorify the stock (this did not work). My nihilistic point of view has only hurt me. On a related note to answer is there inside trading ask yourself this question, does a bear shit in the woods? As a trader even if you have scaled your account to 1 million you are still a minnow in the big ocean. You will always be minutes behind New York. Money drives people to do anything.
Overall this was my rant as too why I missed out on a gold mine that I was staring at but couldn't quite mine. Learning from this is important if I want to become successful in this arena. Moving forward my next steps should be to process what happened and find ways to make money with two stocks that had dramatic changes.
